Estimating the Global Demand of Photovoltaic System

The purpose of this research is to predict the total market demand of photovoltaic (PV) system of the world. By using the Grey forecasting model, the results were precise and valid. Then, the sensitivity analysis was conducted to select the most appropriate horizontal adjusting factor (HAF) and to determine the growth type of PV industry. The result showed the HAF was 0.4, which indicated the growth speed is in a low speed but very close to normal speed. The average residual error was 10.5% from 1995 to 2007 compared to the actual value in the same period. Then, the forecasted value from 2008 to 2011 showed an increasing shape and would reach 8554.9 MW in 2011. This research found the growth type of PV industry of the world, offering meaningful information for firms to decide the strategy in the future. For government, the result could also help to implement adequate policies to support the development of PV industry in the future. DOI: 10.4018/jsds.2012010105 International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences, 3(1), 120-128, January-March 2012 121 Copyright © 2012, IGI Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of IGI Global is prohibited. to pay attention to this issue. With the Kyoto protocol was effective on February 16, 2005; the world has caught the alternative resources fever. Many countries have pursuing the alternative renewable energy in order to reduce the CO2 emission; meanwhile, they also have to maintain their national competitiveness and economy situation in the future. So far, many alternative resources have been developed, like wind power, solar energy, and geothermal power, and so on. Among these, the solar energy is the most popular one because it has many advantages like no pollution, low maintain cost, and unlimited region to absorb the sunlight... etc. Thus, many countries are very enthusiastic about the development of PV industry and have been developing the utilization of solar energy. The purpose of this research is to find out the market demand of the PV system of the world, thus, firms would know how much they should produce, and decide the appropriate strategy to expand their business. Also, government can understand how PV industry grows more clearly in order to propose adequate policies to support in the future.